Fractyl Health Common Stock Performance

GUTS Stock   0.47  0.01  2.17%   
The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.94, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. Fractyl Health returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Fractyl Health is expected to follow. At this point, Fractyl Health Common has a negative expected return of -0.94%. Please make sure to confirm Fractyl Health's total risk alpha, as well as the relationship between the kurtosis and market facilitation index , to decide if Fractyl Health Common performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
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Over the last 90 days Fractyl Health Common has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. In spite of inconsistent performance in the last few months, the Stock's basic indicators remain comparatively stable which may send shares a bit higher in March 2026. The newest uproar may also be a sign of mid-term up-swing for the firm private investors. ...more
1
Fractyl Healths Revita Procedure Helps Patients Keep Weight Off After Stopping GLP-1 Drugs
12/02/2025
2
Acquisition by Rajagopalan Harith of 10416 shares of Fractyl Health, at 1.92 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/04/2025
3
Rajagopalan, Fractyl Health CEO, buys 19998 in shares - Investing.com
12/08/2025
4
Fractyl Health Announces Call of Tranche A Warrants Tied to August 2025 Public Offering Following Achievement of Clinical and Trading Milestones
12/15/2025
5
Fractyl Health, Inc. Receives 7.40 Consensus Target Price from Brokerages
12/24/2025
6
Fractyl Health Appoints Lara Smith Weber as Chief Financial Officer to Support Commercial-Stage Preparedness
01/06/2026
7
Insider Trading
01/12/2026
8
Acquisition by American International Group, Inc. of 673391 shares of Fractyl Health subject to Rule 16b-3
01/21/2026
9
Fractyl Health Announces Compelling 6-Month Randomized REMAIN-1 Midpoint Data Showing Durable Weight Maintenance with Revita After GLP-1 Discontinuation
01/29/2026
10
Acquisition by Smith Weber Lara of 1036800 shares of Fractyl Health at 2.0 subject to Rule 16b-3
02/06/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow37.8 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-1.8 M
Free Cash Flow-67.3 M

Fractyl Health Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  146.00  in Fractyl Health Common on November 24, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (99.00) from holding Fractyl Health Common or give up 67.81% of portfolio value over 90 days. Fractyl Health Common is currently does not generate positive expected returns and assumes 10.463% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 94% of stocks are less volatile than Fractyl, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Fractyl Health is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 14.14 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.09 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.15 per unit of volatility.

Fractyl Health Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Fractyl Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 0.47 90 days 0.47 
under 95
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Fractyl Health to move above the current price in 90 days from now is under 95 (This Fractyl Health Common probability density function shows the probability of Fractyl Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Fractyl Health has a beta of 0.94. This usually indicates Fractyl Health Common market returns are related to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Fractyl Health is expected to follow. Additionally Fractyl Health Common has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Fractyl Health Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Fractyl Health

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fractyl Health Common. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fractyl Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.020.4811.03
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.081.6612.21
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.020.9611.51
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
4.775.245.82
Details

Fractyl Health Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Fractyl Health is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Fractyl Health's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Fractyl Health Common, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Fractyl Health within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.7
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.94
σ
Overall volatility
0.71
Ir
Information ratio -0.07

Fractyl Health Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Fractyl Health for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Fractyl Health Common can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Fractyl Health generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Fractyl Health has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Fractyl Health has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Fractyl Health has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 93 K. Net Loss for the year was (68.69 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3 K.
Fractyl Health generates negative cash flow from operations
Fractyl Health has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 77.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from globenewswire.com: Fractyl Health Announces Compelling 6-Month Randomized REMAIN-1 Midpoint Data Showing Durable Weight Maintenance with Revita After GLP-1 Discontinuation

Fractyl Health Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Fractyl Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Fractyl Health's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fractyl Health's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding43.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments67.5 M

Fractyl Health Fundamentals Growth

Fractyl Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Fractyl Health, and Fractyl Health fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Fractyl Stock performance.

About Fractyl Health Performance

Assessing Fractyl Health's fundamental ratios provides investors with valuable insights into Fractyl Health's financial health and overall profitability. This information is crucial for making informed investment decisions. A high ROA would indicate that the Fractyl Health is effectively leveraging its assets and equity to generate significant profits, making it an appealing investment. Conversely, low Return on Assets could signal underlying management issues in assets and equity, indicating a necessity for operational refinements. Please also refer to our technical analysis and fundamental analysis pages.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 479.61  351.58 
Return On Tangible Assets(0.57)(0.60)
Return On Capital Employed(0.95)(1.00)
Return On Assets(0.57)(0.60)
Return On Equity(2.78)(2.64)

Things to note about Fractyl Health Common performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Fractyl Health for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Fractyl Health Common help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Fractyl Health generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Fractyl Health has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Fractyl Health has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Fractyl Health has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 93 K. Net Loss for the year was (68.69 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3 K.
Fractyl Health generates negative cash flow from operations
Fractyl Health has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 77.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from globenewswire.com: Fractyl Health Announces Compelling 6-Month Randomized REMAIN-1 Midpoint Data Showing Durable Weight Maintenance with Revita After GLP-1 Discontinuation
Evaluating Fractyl Health's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Fractyl Health's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Fractyl Health's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Fractyl Health's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Fractyl Health's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Fractyl Health's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Fractyl Health's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Fractyl Health's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Fractyl Health's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Fractyl Health's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Fractyl Health's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Additional Tools for Fractyl Stock Analysis

When running Fractyl Health's price analysis, check to measure Fractyl Health's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fractyl Health is operating at the current time. Most of Fractyl Health's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fractyl Health's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fractyl Health's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fractyl Health to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.